Housing Market Trends During Election Season

The 2020 presidential election is soon approaching and many analysts and economists are beginning to speculate the effects the election year will have on both the economy and the housing market. 

‣ Election years tend to have a negative affect on home prices, appreciation, and how long a home is on the market.

‣ Current interest rates are beneficial to buyers or home-owners looking to refinance.

‣ If selling or buying a home is on your 2020 to-do list, start planning now.


 

ELECTION YEAR TRENDS

Historically, election years tend to have a negative effect on the housing market for both buyers and sellers. Economic uncertainty tends to hold people back from wanting to sell their home. When looking at past statistics, property prices show a decline in growth, while the total time a home is on the market has also historically increased.

 

Housing price appreciation shows a dip during election years, as can be seen during the last two presidential elections in 2012 and 2016.

 

COMMON FACTORS

There are many reasons why the housing market is affected by an election, the main reason being the uncertainty surrounding elections.

Currently, mortgage interest rates for a traditional 30-year mortgage average at around 3.75%, which has actually provided a boost to the housing market this year.

It is important to note that although 2016 was an election year, the housing market was not as affected by the election as many analysts had speculated. See graphs below to see what analysts predicted versus what actually happened. 

 

Election years typically have a negative correlation to housing price changes when compared to non-election years.
While election years tend to affect home prices, the last two election seasons (2012 and 2016) still had a substantial amount of purchasing when compared to non-election years.

 

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR BUYERS & SELLERS IN 2019

Our suggestion to those looking to buy or sell a home in the next year is to act fast. Buyers should take advantage of the lower interest rates and the expected fall in housing prices that comes along with the winter slow-down — as well as the election uncertainty. Sellers should also list their homes as soon as possible and work on their home’s condition to maximize on sale prices amid this expected slow-down in the housing market.

 


Sources : 

Freddie Mac 

Greenfield Advisors

CNBC